Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbff0…2fba sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$178 (+10%) realized +$229 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%41W / 22L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$427
7 days+$349
14 days+$381
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$482
other 34% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +23.9% +12.1% 64% 64% +11.5%
≤30d 63 +24.2% +12.4% 65% 63% +12.6%
≤90d 63 +24.2% +12.4% 65% 63% +12.6%
all 63 +24.2% +12.4% 65% 63% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 63% +12.6%
10% +1.7% 62% +1.9%
15% -8.2% 40% -8.0%
20% -17.2% 22% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses41 / 22
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $150 $84 −$66 (-44%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 47¢ 70¢ $31 $46 +$15 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $199 +$277 +139%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$68 -67%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 21 $40 −$1 -3%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young Jun 21 $13 +$7 +54%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 −$27 -90%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $21 +$15 +76%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $10 +$11 +112%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 21 $15 +$14 +90%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $20 +$8 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $20 +$7 +32%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 21 $15 +$6 +37%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$81 +784%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $20 +$8 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $20 +$4 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $20 +$16 +78%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $21 +$122 +596%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $20 +$5 +24%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Amelie Justine Hejtmanek vs Marie Mettraux Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 20 $20 +$8 +40%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Tanasie vs Sara Victoria Balan Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $199 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Eva Lys 37¢ $10 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 70¢ $9 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $20 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $34 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang SELL Iva Jovic 73¢ $39 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $91 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 4h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 65¢ $13 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 100¢ $13 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia $3 10h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $20 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango SELL Emiliana Arango 95¢ $0 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango SELL Emiliana Arango 95¢ $4 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango SELL Emiliana Arango 95¢ $5 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango SELL Emiliana Arango 95¢ $10 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango SELL Emiliana Arango 95¢ $10 11h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 27¢ $36 12h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $1 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $10 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.48 · official $129.48 (match) · 157 history records