Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfee…a551 crypto 679 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-6%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%418W / 261L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -0.1% -9.7% 64% 48% -15.3%
≤30d 448 +5.8% -4.3% 68% 50% -10.0%
≤90d 679 +5.7% -4.3% 62% 50% -8.7%
all 679 +5.7% -4.3% 62% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 50% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -17.4%
15% -21.8% 32% -25.4%
20% -29.5% 28% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses418 / 261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)679 / 679
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 679 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 3500 history records