Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbfec…4dc7
weather · 434 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,645 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$247 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,116
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses403 / 19
Open positions11
Markets (closed)422 / 434
History coverage47d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 422 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$151
14 days+$207
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $298 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $299 $298 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 68¢ $180 $128 −$52 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $298 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $305 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $347 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $436 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 10 $60 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $138 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $726 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $439 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $725 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $188 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$37 +347%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 07 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $219 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $286 +$14 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $310 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 8? Jun 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 07 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $199 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 06 $148 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$302
crypto 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $244 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $36 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $39 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $251 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $188 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $310 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 2% -7.8%
≤30d 199 +2.3% -7.5% 99% 2% -8.1%
≤90d 422 +6.8% -3.3% 95% 4% -10.2%
all 422 +6.8% -3.3% 95% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 4% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -18.8%
15% -21.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -28.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,115.80 · official $1,115.81 (match) · 3500 history records