Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbfeb…5df0 crypto 1478 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%946W / 531L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -0.7% -10.1% 88% 15% -10.7%
≤30d 244 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 15% -10.4%
≤90d 1477 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 42% -13.1%
all 1477 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 42% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 31% -21.4%
15% -28.7% 24% -29.0%
20% -35.7% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses946 / 531
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1477 / 1478
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 89¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 3500 history records