Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfe2…8c49 crypto 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,182 (+13%) realized +$25,173 · open +$2,009
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%143W / 99L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$839per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$7,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,998
14 days−$2,220
30 days+$4,606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 47% +$8,042
world 37% +$16,950
other 7% +$1,398
crypto 4% +$337
tech 2% +$177
sports 1% −$1,715
politics 1% +$657
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 36% -49.7%
≤30d 52 -9.8% -18.4% 58% 46% +3.9%
≤90d 196 -7.1% -16.0% 61% 43% -0.6%
all 242 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 43% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 43% +1.3%
10% -25.4% 31% -8.4%
15% -32.6% 21% -17.2%
20% -39.2% 12% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$220 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$7,149
Realized+$25,173
Unrealized+$2,009
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses143 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 245
History coverage164d
Avg bet$839
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 60¢ 99¢ $3,070 $5,052 +$1,982 (+65%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 72¢ 72¢ $1,970 $1,982 +$12 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 83¢ 95¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $486 +$370 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$37 +181%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $961 −$420 -44%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $204 +$60 +29%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$14 +14%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 −$39 -39%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $307 +$42 +14%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 09 $1,008 +$47 +5%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $107 −$64 -60%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $71 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $504 +$95 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $477 −$287 -60%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1? Jun 02 $289 −$289 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1? Jun 02 $480 +$471 +98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 01 $1,004 −$74 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $968 +$333 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,266 +$268 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $179 +$45 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $4,021 +$1,044 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $2,989 +$1,419 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $4,003 +$1,480 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $5,034 +$2,481 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $960 +$331 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $185 −$185 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 25 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $212.50 Week of May 18 20 May 22 $101 +$24 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $501 +$20 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? May 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $303 +$93 +31%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on May 20? May 20 $100 −$11 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 72¢ $2,009 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 67¢ $375 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $505 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $856 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $27 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $31 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $486 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $541 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $102 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $201 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $961 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 83¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $154 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $1,980 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 96¢ $263 7d
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 11? BUY No 87¢ $101 7d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 83¢ $101 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 75¢ $20 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? SELL No 50¢ $61 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,148.77 · official $7,148.77 (match) · 748 history records