Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbfe2…1913 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$650 (-5%) realized −$13 · open −$637
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,569per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$11,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$556
world 46% −$1,185
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
all 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 0% -6.8%
10% -14.6% 0% -15.7%
15% -22.9% 0% -23.8%
20% -30.4% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$11,303
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$637
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,569
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $5,734 $5,783 +$49 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 86¢ $2,585 $2,480 −$105 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 71¢ 44¢ $2,812 $1,729 −$1,083 (-39%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $800 $1,307 +$507 (+63%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 40¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $396 +$8 +2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 03 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 2h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $398 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $88 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $43 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $590 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $730 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $2,300 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $769 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $1,050 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3,163 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $134 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $272 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $272 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $676 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $460 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $20 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $178 10d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $201 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $202 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $202 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $58 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $387 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,303.47 · official $11,304.30 (match) · 44 history records