trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +4.4% | -5.6% | 100% | 0% | -6.8% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +4.4% | -5.6% | 100% | 0% | -6.8% |
| all | 3 | +4.4% | -5.6% | 100% | 0% | -6.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.6% | 0% | -6.8% |
| 10% | -14.6% | 0% | -15.7% |
| 15% | -22.9% | 0% | -23.8% |
| 20% | -30.4% | 0% | -31.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? | No | 69¢ | 69¢ | $5,734 | $5,783 | +$49 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 90¢ | 86¢ | $2,585 | $2,480 | −$105 (-4%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 71¢ | 44¢ | $2,812 | $1,729 | −$1,083 (-39%) |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 24¢ | $800 | $1,307 | +$507 (+63%) |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 40¢ | $10 | $5 | −$5 (-49%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 06 | $396 | +$8 | +2% |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M | Jun 03 | $50 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 03 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |