Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfe1…0db1 weather 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$92 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%78W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$101
crypto 23% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 79 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.1%
all 79 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$152 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses78 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage84d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $153 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $153 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $122 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $122 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $121 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 31? Jun 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 27? May 26 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on May 23? May 23 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C or below on May 18? May 22 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 15? May 14 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? May 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 29? Apr 29 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28? Apr 29 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 28 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? Apr 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11? Apr 12 $152 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? Apr 11 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $252 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10? Apr 10 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 10? Apr 10 $607 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 10? Apr 10 $819 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 10? Apr 10 $404 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10? Apr 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10? Apr 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 10? Apr 10 $149 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 10? Apr 10 $249 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $80 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $71 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $153 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $153 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $122 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $122 7d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $122 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $22 10d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $121 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $98 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $151 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $151 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $59 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $92 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $150 19d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $58 23d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $92 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $150 25d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 25d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $120 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.83 · official $149.83 (match) · 266 history records