Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfe0…b5e2 crypto 671 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-2%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%261W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$260
14 days−$426
30 days−$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$794
world 3% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -69.8% -72.7% 9% 6% -78.5%
≤30d 265 -21.2% -28.7% 25% 23% -25.1%
≤90d 396 -22.0% -29.5% 29% 26% -22.2%
all 671 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 36% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 36% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 32% -26.5%
15% -36.5% 27% -33.6%
20% -42.8% 22% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses261 / 410
Open positions0
Markets (closed)671 / 671
History coverage99d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 671 Trades
no open positions (312 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 03 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $45 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2592 history records