Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfdf…8e02 sports 639 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,119 (-4%) realized −$11,045 · open −$1,074
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%278W / 357L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$4,020est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$3,031
other 8% −$2,179
world 0% −$630
crypto 0% +$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 52% -3.4%
≤30d 402 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 46% -9.1%
≤90d 634 -0.5% -9.9% 44% 43% -11.6%
all 635 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 43% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 43% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 43% -19.9%
15% -24.1% 41% -27.6%
20% -31.5% 39% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$524 vs −$422 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$785
Realized−$11,045
Unrealized−$1,074
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses278 / 357
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$4,020
Open positions5
Markets (closed)635 / 639
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$496
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $289 $419 +$130 (+45%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 36¢ $500 $365 −$135 (-27%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $388 $1 −$387 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 64¢ 0¢ $640 $0 −$640 (-100%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 13¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 23 $298 −$298 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $710 +$290 +41%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $560 +$440 +79%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $650 +$350 +54%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $310 −$310 -100%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $140 +$860 +614%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $490 +$510 +104%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $584 −$575 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $560 −$560 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $770 +$230 +30%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $315 −$315 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $530 +$470 +89%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $550 +$450 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $175 −$175 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $575 +$675 +117%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $538 −$538 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $570 +$430 +75%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $630 +$370 +59%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,337 +$613 +46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $750 −$750 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $580 −$580 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $825 −$825 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $500 +$750 +150%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $252 −$252 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $590 +$410 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $540 −$540 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $620 −$620 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $640 +$360 +56%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $470 +$530 +113%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,162 −$575 -50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $530 +$470 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $358 +$210 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $590 +$410 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $419 −$419 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $193 +$118 +61%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $560 +$440 +79%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $587 −$580 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $470 +$530 +113%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $450 +$550 +122%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $93 +$50 +54%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $570 +$430 +75%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $272 +$528 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 64¢ $647 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $396 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $289 2h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 13¢ $42 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $560 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $310 5h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $231 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $380 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $39 6h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $710 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $490 24h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $140 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 55¢ $557 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $584 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $560 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $315 28h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $110 31h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 77¢ $770 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $10 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $48 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $78 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $17 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $785.43 · official $785.43 (match) · 3500 history records