Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfdf…2199 crypto 719 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$498 (+1%) realized +$498 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate85%609W / 110L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$223
14 days−$62
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -5.1% -14.2% 86% 22% -14.1%
≤30d 241 -3.2% -12.4% 85% 29% -11.9%
≤90d 719 -1.9% -11.2% 85% 33% -9.1%
all 719 -1.9% -11.2% 85% 33% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 33% -9.1%
10% -19.7% 18% -17.8%
15% -27.5% 10% -25.7%
20% -34.6% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$47 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$498
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses609 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)719 / 719
History coverage71d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 719 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$6 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$21 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$24 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$21 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$12 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$19 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$12 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$7 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$23 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$10 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$12 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$8 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $60 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $60 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $61 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $61 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $61 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $63 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $62 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $61 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $61 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.82 · official $200.82 (match) · 1341 history records