Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfda…5504 sports 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,330 (+9%) realized +$4,330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%133W / 177L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$931est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$797
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -50.9% -55.6% 23% 17% -53.1%
≤30d 135 -23.7% -31.0% 37% 28% -23.2%
≤90d 310 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 34% -15.5%
all 310 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 34% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 34% -15.5%
10% -32.2% 30% -23.6%
15% -38.8% 27% -31.0%
20% -44.8% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$124 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses133 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$931
Open positions0
Markets (closed)310 / 273
History coverage73d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 310 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $134 −$127 -95%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 22 $360 −$360 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $501 −$501 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $24 −$124 -517%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs REBORN - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $164 −$164 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $407 −$407 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$14 -143%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $504 −$504 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $126 −$126 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif Jun 22 $380 −$380 -100%
Valorant: Grizzly Gang vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 22 $159 −$159 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 22 $16 +$17 +107%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Jun 22 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $269 −$269 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $239 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $272 −$230 -85%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $406 −$6 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $420 +$43 +10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 $0 +19%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $16 +$8 +52%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $4 $0 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $503 +$448 +89%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $239 +$21 +9%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $44 +$5 +12%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $312 +$208 +67%
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 69¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 70¢ $187 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 50¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 50¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 10¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 50¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 50¢ $0 17h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 50¢ $8 17h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 50¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 36¢ $126 17h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $18 18h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $18 18h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $26 18h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $36 18h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $6 18h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 38¢ $18 18h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro - Game 4 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $406 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 47¢ $463 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $420 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner SELL VP.Prodigy 11¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 9¢ $1 28h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 9¢ $0 28h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 66¢ $16 46h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1320 history records