Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbfd0…a0c8 crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%139W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 37% -10.5%
≤30d 137 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 37% -10.5%
≤90d 137 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 37% -10.5%
all 195 -2.9% -12.2% 71% 42% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 42% -10.5%
10% -20.6% 18% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 11% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses139 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage134d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 98¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.11 (match) · 715 history records