Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfce…5c3e sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,203 (-18%) realized −$2,195 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%66W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$693
7 days−$211
14 days−$92
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,337
other 7% −$59
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.3% -22.5% 38% 38% -16.5%
≤30d 43 -17.7% -25.5% 37% 37% -15.1%
≤90d 161 -27.4% -34.3% 29% 29% -31.7%
all 187 -18.4% -26.2% 35% 35% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 35% -27.4%
10% -33.2% 32% -34.3%
15% -39.7% 30% -40.7%
20% -45.6% 28% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$53 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$2,195
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses66 / 121
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage140d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Gentle Mates 43¢ 42¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 1 Team WE 33¢ 29¢ $59 $52 −$7 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $59 −$59 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $173 −$173 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $135 +$141 +105%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $162 +$178 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $391 −$391 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $67 +$102 +152%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $187 −$187 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $214 +$184 +86%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $303 +$294 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $94 +$116 +124%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $112 +$79 +70%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $105 +$226 +216%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 +$16 +197%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $92 +$128 +140%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 08 $79 −$79 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $153 +$154 +101%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs RRQ Tora - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $28 +$53 +188%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Jun 03 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship G May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Gabi Boitan May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri May 20 $7 +$9 +140%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group May 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Kozyreva/Panova vs Bucsa/Melic May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner May 20 $129 −$129 -100%
Valorant: MIR vs WIP Esports - Map 1 Winner May 19 $70 +$65 +93%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group St May 19 $153 +$99 +64%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) May 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Map Handicap: AM (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5) May 18 $67 +$86 +129%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage May 18 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: EXILE esports vs BRUTE - Game 2 Winner May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs TYLOO (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group May 16 $50 +$73 +146%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs 2007 (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua May 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs LGD NBW - Game 4 Winner May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY Team WE 33¢ $60 1h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 43¢ $69 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $173 17h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 47¢ $162 22h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $10 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $62 26h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $125 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $67 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $391 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 46¢ $93 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $187 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $150 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $167 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $47 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $303 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $10 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 15¢ $20 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 15¢ $12 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $35 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $59 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 19¢ $31 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 31¢ $38 3d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $51 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $8 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 27¢ $41 4d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $37 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.07 · official $118.28 (match) · 437 history records