Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbfcc…12a6
world · 917 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$3,169 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,635 · open +$1,364
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$12,177
Realized+$1,635
Unrealized+$1,364
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses707 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions54
Markets (closed)863 / 917
History coverage222d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 54 History 863 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$867
7 days−$803
14 days+$57
30 days+$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $921 $998 +$77 (+8%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 34¢ 46¢ $500 $667 +$167 (+33%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $462 $556 +$94 (+20%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 56¢ 82¢ $346 $511 +$164 (+47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $467 $495 +$28 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $431 $457 +$26 (+6%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 82¢ 96¢ $368 $431 +$63 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $395 $422 +$27 (+7%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 79¢ 76¢ $400 $387 −$13 (-3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $300 $335 +$35 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 90¢ $325 $333 +$8 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 79¢ 90¢ $266 $305 +$39 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 86¢ 86¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 74¢ $119 $287 +$168 (+140%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 88¢ 92¢ $253 $263 +$11 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 79¢ 99¢ $201 $253 +$52 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $225 $235 +$10 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $220 $229 +$9 (+4%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+10%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $189 $220 +$31 (+17%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 98¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $164 $194 +$30 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $253 +$52 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $200 +$3 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $500 +$5 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $200 +$5 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $511 +$54 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $400 +$4 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $161 −$161 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $412 −$412 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $350 −$22 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $300 +$19 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $401 +$12 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $200 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $115 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $401 +$17 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $200 +$9 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $250 +$7 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $222 +$71 +32%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$13 +13%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $114 +$57 +50%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $450? Jun 05 $220 +$10 +5%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $445? Jun 05 $170 +$13 +8%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? Jun 04 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 04 $137 +$1 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,446 +$166 +12%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$3,618
other 17% +$290
crypto 14% −$1,027
politics 10% −$684
finance 10% +$161
tech 6% +$1,081
sports 6% −$534
culture 0% +$79
economics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $147 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $200 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $200 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $32 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $23 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $150 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 97¢ $4 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 97¢ $15 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 70¢ $20 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $39 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $20 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $28 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? SELL Yes 78¢ $27 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $4 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 67¢ $30 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $234 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $55 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $156 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $52 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? SELL Yes 78¢ $40 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $48 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.5% -24.5% 78% 7% -20.9%
≤30d 188 -9.3% -18.0% 78% 23% -7.9%
≤90d 645 -2.6% -11.9% 82% 20% -8.2%
all 863 -1.5% -10.8% 82% 19% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 19% -8.8%
10% -19.4% 7% -17.5%
15% -27.2% 4% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,176.71 · official $12,173.75 (match) · 3500 history records