Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfc8…8f95 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+7%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day62.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 44% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 44% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 44% -9.5%
all 9 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 44% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 44% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 44% -18.2%
15% -33.9% 22% -26.1%
20% -40.4% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $61 −$33 -54%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $63 +$16 +25%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $39 +$15 +39%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 +$17 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $87 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $74 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL Gentle Mates 9¢ $24 29m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL Gentle Mates 5¢ $5 41m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 11¢ $12 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 16¢ $19 52m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $2 54m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $9 54m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $3 54m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $14 54m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $2 54m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 30¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 30¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 30¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 30¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 30¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 30¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 20¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 27¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 9¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 16¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 22¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 14¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 9¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 9¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 17¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 8¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records