Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfc5…31de world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$2
sports 19% +$5
other 16% +$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.1%
all 29 +1.6% -8.0% 48% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 7% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.9% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage482d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $37 −$3 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $42 +$2 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $16 $0 +1%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Morehead State vs. Lindenwood Mar 05 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Bodo/Glimt vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Hurricanes Mar 05 $10 −$6 -60%
76ers vs. Celtics Mar 05 $10 −$1 -11%
Sabres vs. Lightning Mar 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $9 $0 -2%
Will Ilhan Omar applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $10 $0 -1%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 04 $10 +$10 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $34 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $37 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $14 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $42 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records