Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbfbd…21d2 crypto 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$310 (-1%) realized −$453 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%107W / 412L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$5,945
world 23% +$1,867
sports 8% +$372
other 5% +$2,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -37.5% -43.4% 10% 9% -79.8%
≤30d 270 -37.5% -43.4% 10% 9% -79.8%
≤90d 277 -37.2% -43.2% 11% 10% -79.7%
all 519 -26.9% -33.9% 21% 19% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 19% -43.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 18% -48.5%
15% -46.0% 18% -53.5%
20% -51.3% 16% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$85 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses107 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions4
Markets (closed)519 / 303
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 34¢ $69 $103 +$34 (+50%)
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Czechia 11¢ 20¢ $55 $98 +$42 (+77%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 16¢ $60 $93 +$33 (+55%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 26¢ 42¢ $52 $85 +$33 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 405 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 18 $70 −$85 -121%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11? Jun 18 $13 +$2 +14%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-29? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will India win? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Jun 18 $56 +$150 +267%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Jun 18 $543 −$548 -101%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Partizan vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 18 $639 −$639 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 18 $630 −$630 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-03? Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Valencia Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 18 $883 −$806 -91%
Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Will CA Tigre win on 2025-11-16? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-14? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Partizan Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,706 −$1,258 -74%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6? Jun 18 $15 −$11 -73%
Saski Baskonia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$651 +4342%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-19? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Jun 18 $123 −$111 -91%
Barcelona vs. Monaco Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30? Jun 18 $0 $0 +125%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Virtus Bologna vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18? Jun 18 $0 −$21 -5297975%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $71 25m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $53 30m
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $56 32m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $62 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $70 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $77 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.97 · official $379.00 (match) · 3500 history records