Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfba…6ea1 crypto 425 markets active 3d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-6%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%260W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$34
sports 32% −$28
crypto 24% +$1
politics 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
tech 1% +$1
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -55.2%
≤30d 12 -34.9% -41.1% 42% 25% -49.0%
≤90d 425 -3.9% -13.1% 61% 40% -16.3%
all 425 -3.9% -13.1% 61% 40% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 40% -16.3%
10% -21.4% 22% -24.3%
15% -29.0% 10% -31.6%
20% -36.0% 2% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses260 / 165
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage61d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $17 −$16 -93%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -88%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -14%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $4 $0 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $4 −$2 -57%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun May 14 $4 $0 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $17 $0 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino May 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7? May 06 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7? May 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +26%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6? May 05 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 05 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +39%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $2 −$1 -39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 04 $2 −$1 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 6¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 83¢ $17 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $3 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? SELL No 45¢ $3 4d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 1¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $5 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 40¢ $4 19d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 35¢ $2 19d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 37¢ $2 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur BUY Jannik Sinner 99¢ $6 21d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 39¢ $1 22d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 78¢ $2 22d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $1 22d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $2 22d
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia SELL Czechia 0¢ $0 31d
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia BUY Czechia 95¢ $10 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 92¢ $10 32d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 33d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 33d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 33d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 920 history records