Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbfba…6cfc
crypto · 255 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$317 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$301 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses102 / 152
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage66d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 1 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$142
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 42¢ 6¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-87%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -69%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $54 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +36%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $8 +$17 +204%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $15 +$15 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $20 −$4 -22%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $21 −$12 -60%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF end in a draw? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: Draw at halftime? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Serbia leading at halftime? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Kosovo leading at halftime? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Draw at halftime? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $31 +$28 +89%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$19 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $18 −$15 -86%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Serbia end in a draw? May 31 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $41 −$19 -47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 +$23 +46%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -95%
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $4 −$3 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$167
other 26% −$84
sports 16% −$66
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 35m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 36m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $13 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 32h
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 7d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 7d
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 69¢ $25 7d
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 7d
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 7d
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 7d
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 40% -10.7%
≤30d 79 -31.9% -38.4% 32% 27% -27.0%
≤90d 254 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 34% -24.7%
all 254 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 34% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 34% -24.7%
10% -29.8% 30% -31.9%
15% -36.6% 26% -38.5%
20% -42.8% 21% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.40 · official $2.40 (match) · 755 history records