Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfba…583c other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$512 (-35%) realized −$447 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day215.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$575
sports 23% −$28
world 6% −$19
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -48.1% -53.1% 18% 18% -59.9%
≤30d 39 -48.1% -53.1% 18% 18% -59.9%
≤90d 39 -48.1% -53.1% 18% 18% -59.9%
all 39 -48.1% -53.1% 18% 18% -59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.1% 18% -59.9%
10% ← realistic here -57.6% 15% -63.8%
15% -61.7% 15% -67.3%
20% -65.4% 15% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions24
Markets (closed)39 / 63
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day215.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $30 $63 +$33 (+111%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+189%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 5¢ 13¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+160%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+31%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 68¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $37 +$28 +75%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -57%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$17 -43%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $388 −$361 -93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$47 +81%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $29 +$65 +222%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$46 +238%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$99 -75%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -82%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2m
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 91¢ $5 9m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 11m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $5 27m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 36m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 37m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 38m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 39m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 44m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 45m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 45m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 45m
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL PortlandFire 2¢ $1 47m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 52m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 53m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 54m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 55m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $20 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 7¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.72 · official $300.10 (match) · 219 history records