Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb9…f95b tech 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$12
sports 29% −$8
politics 16% −$3
tech 12% +$37
economics 4% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 25 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 41 +1.3% -8.3% 24% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.1% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$537) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage234d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $109 +$4 +4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $969 −$1 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 06 $971 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $974 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $976 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $981 −$2 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 06 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $108 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 10 $536 −$3 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 10 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 10 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $544 −$4 -1%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $192 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $58 +$2 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 16 $90 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 21 $47 +$21 +44%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $42 +$5 +12%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 06 $19 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $113 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $112 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $112 18d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $110 19d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $110 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $110 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $110 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $110 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $113 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $109 40d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $967 53d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $969 53d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $969 53d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $971 53d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $972 53d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $974 53d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $972 53d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $976 53d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $973 53d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $975 53d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $979 53d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $981 53d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $981 53d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $983 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $108 58d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 72d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $533 79d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $533 79d
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 99¢ $533 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.95 · official $112.95 (match) · 96 history records