Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfb9…bcbc other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$23
politics 24% +$29
sports 12% +$123
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 123 +5.1% -4.9% 15% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 10% -9.3%
10% -14.0% 9% -18.0%
15% -22.3% 7% -25.9%
20% -30.0% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage131d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $40 +$40 (+0%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $322 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $258 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $307 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $325 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,551 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $316 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $369 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $496 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $313 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 28h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 28h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 39h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $41 3d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $40 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $40 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $321 25d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $248 26d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $336 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $336 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.97 · official $76.97 (match) · 406 history records