Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbfb5…5cd8 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$814 (+64%) realized +$810 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$322
30 days+$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$4
sports 40% +$800
tech 5% $0
world 3% $0
politics 3% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +188.4% +160.9% 100% 100% +160.9%
≤90d 10 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 30% +113.3%
all 14 +34.1% +21.3% 100% 21% +93.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.3% 21% +93.3%
10% +9.7% 21% +74.8%
15% -0.9% 21% +58.0%
20% -10.6% 21% +42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +136% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +114% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +67% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized+$810
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage169d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $564 $568 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $171 +$322 +188%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $167 +$234 +140%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 16 $10 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic May 16 $175 +$244 +140%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $8 $0 +5%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 03 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jan 10 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.23 · official $568.23 (match) · 31 history records