Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbfb4…8316
weather · 1431 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6,570 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,531 · open −$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$185
Realized−$6,531
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1341 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1418 / 1431
History coverage162d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 1418 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$6,404
weather 13% −$78
politics 0% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 2% -9.5%
≤30d 664 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1217 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 5% -9.9%
all 1418 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 6% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -15.5%
10% -18.8% 1% -23.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -31.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.47 · official $185.47 (match) · 3500 history records