Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbfaa…2814 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,621 (+20%) realized +$17,621 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,412per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$469est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$4,045
other 29% +$10,372
crypto 28% −$17,449
world 1% +$1,843
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -79.4% -81.4% 8% 8% -86.9%
≤30d 32 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 41% -21.4%
≤90d 37 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 46% -10.7%
all 37 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 46% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 46% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 41% -19.3%
15% -34.1% 38% -27.1%
20% -40.6% 35% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$3,195) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,252 vs −$1,974 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$469
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2,412
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $989 −$958 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $1,143 −$1,109 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $2,748 −$2,642 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2,430 −$2,356 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $3,087 −$2,981 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $3,301 −$3,195 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $2,033 +$1,031 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $2,486 −$2,407 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $1,806 −$1,746 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $1,694 −$1,635 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $170 −$162 -96%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 29 $5 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3,366 +$710 +21%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,453 +$1,602 +110%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2,642 −$2,590 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3,896 +$774 +20%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $980 +$1,843 +188%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,960 +$2,687 +137%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,071 +$2,471 +61%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,900 −$4,771 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Was Jun 03 $1,960 −$1,930 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 03 $469 −$117 -25%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 03 $980 +$1,086 +111%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 03 $431 +$277 +64%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 03 $2,094 +$2,014 +96%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 03 $1,441 −$1,425 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $4,315 +$8,983 +208%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $2,107 +$1,307 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 03 $4,081 +$3,572 +88%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 02 $2,597 −$2,563 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ta Jun 02 $4,900 −$4,833 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $1,981 −$1,960 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $7,426 +$5,008 +67%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Trevor Svajda May 27 $969 +$463 +48%
Little Rock: Aidan Mayo vs Edas Butvilas May 27 $6,378 +$3,886 +61%
Little Rock: Henry Searle vs Nicolas Mejia May 27 $1,855 +$567 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $989 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $392 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $751 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $489 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $463 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $325 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $490 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $557 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $424 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $458 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $444 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $898 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $552 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $590 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $849 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $486 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $476 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $636 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $840 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $490 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $267 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $269 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $497 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $416 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records