Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbfa8…7fd6
crypto · 156 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$32 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses61 / 95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage34d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$15
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 31 $1 +$10 +972%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $70 −$38 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 29 $57 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 25 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 25 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 25 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 24 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $13 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $11 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 24 $141 −$63 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $91 +$47 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 23 $104 +$49 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 23 $98 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 23 $156 +$68 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 23 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $7 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$32
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $13 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $40 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $40 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $30 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $39 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $28 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $28 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $19 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $19 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $21 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $32 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $19 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +30.8% +18.3% 67% 33% -35.6%
≤30d 113 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 35% -10.2%
≤90d 156 -18.0% -25.8% 39% 34% -10.7%
all 156 -18.0% -25.8% 39% 34% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 34% -10.7%
10% -32.9% 26% -19.3%
15% -39.4% 22% -27.1%
20% -45.3% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 470 history records