Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbfa1…dcb7 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$2
politics 25% −$3
sports 4% −$19
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 5% -9.7%
all 77 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 71
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage82d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $377 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $178 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $338 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $345 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $345 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $164 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $358 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 5h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $63 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 99¢ $32 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 24d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 28d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $27 30d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.25 · official $162.25 (match) · 208 history records