Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfa0…0e9e other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-3%) realized −$59 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$60
14 days−$111
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$53
crypto 19% −$70
sports 7% +$67
world 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +23.8% +12.0% 44% 44% -16.0%
≤30d 53 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 53 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 40% -14.6%
all 53 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 40% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 40% -14.6%
10% -12.3% 28% -22.8%
15% -20.7% 26% -30.3%
20% -28.5% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage19d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $156 $160 +$4 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 −$32 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +129%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 -46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$6 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$81 +786%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$24 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 −$12 -54%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$4 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $78 +$9 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$20 -40%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$4 -28%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$9 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $79 +$91 +115%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 58¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 34h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 35h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 78¢ $30 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 41h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $25 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 43h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $48 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.26 · official $188.26 (match) · 166 history records