Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf9f…d173 sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$110 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate73%88W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$225
14 days−$112
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$346
other 27% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +14.9% +3.9% 84% 71% +6.1%
≤30d 49 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 61% -11.6%
≤90d 120 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 65% -11.1%
all 120 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 65% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 65% -11.1%
10% -20.0% 39% -19.6%
15% -27.7% 19% -27.3%
20% -34.8% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$52 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses88 / 32
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage86d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 59¢ 55¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 46¢ 72¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $31 +$46 +151%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$21 +21%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $40 +$11 +28%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $70 +$20 +28%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $50 +$14 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $150 +$10 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $81 +$30 +38%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $50 +$23 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $61 +$33 +54%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $30 +$6 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $80 −$37 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima Jun 24 $40 +$8 +21%
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $30 +$15 +51%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $30 +$11 +37%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $20 +$5 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $60 −$35 -57%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $81 −$80 -99%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Jun 05 $60 +$16 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $50 +$11 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $40 +$10 +24%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $40 +$6 +14%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 30 $30 +$7 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 59¢ $40 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 46¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 16h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 86¢ $20 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 51¢ $20 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 39h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 69¢ $20 43h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 89¢ $20 43h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 80¢ $40 44h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 74¢ $30 44h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 79¢ $20 45h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 78¢ $30 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 91¢ $30 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 78¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 69¢ $50 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 93¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 32¢ $31 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 68¢ $50 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 95¢ $20 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 96¢ $30 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 68¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 90¢ $30 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 82¢ $30 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 55¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.04 · official $68.04 (match) · 244 history records