Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf9f…cf2d other 125 markets active 6d ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$10
politics 20% −$5
world 15% −$8
sports 13% −$5
finance 8% +$6
economics 7% −$1
crypto 4% −$5
tech 0% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -19.8%
≤30d 14 +130.7% +108.7% 7% 7% -10.4%
≤90d 92 +38.1% +24.9% 2% 2% -9.7%
all 124 +27.9% +15.8% 2% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 2% -9.7%
10% +4.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -5.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -14.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×13.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage91d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 66¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $28 −$4 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $61 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $30 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $190 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 -3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 11 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $7 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $1 $0 -7%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $30 −$9 -30%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $40 +$8 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $10 −$3 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 17 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $900 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $162 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $2 $0 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $392 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $834 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $450 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $24 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $28 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 42¢ $15 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 45¢ $17 6d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $5 6d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? BUY No 72¢ $14 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $28 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $28 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $13 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? SELL No 18¢ $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 18¢ $6 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 84¢ $23 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 65¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $0.00 · 1310 history records