Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf9f…2a46
crypto · 1165 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,641 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,604 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$5,604
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses447 / 717
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1164 / 1165
History coverage588d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 1164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$234
14 days−$1,472
30 days−$2,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $730 $0 −$730 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 24% +$1,390
crypto 22% −$591
other 19% −$527
politics 15% −$5,050
sports 14% −$177
tech 2% +$6
culture 1% −$313
economics 1% −$232
finance 1% −$76
weather 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -16.3% -24.3% 46% 46% -36.0%
≤30d 279 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 43% -49.4%
≤90d 375 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 38% -22.9%
all 1164 -10.1% -18.6% 38% 34% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 34% -16.8%
10% -26.4% 31% -24.7%
15% -33.5% 28% -32.0%
20% -40.0% 24% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 3410 history records