Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf9f…4f74 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate61%35W / 22L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$4
other 26% +$14
crypto 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 57 +1.8% -7.9% 61% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses35 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage549d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Feb 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Feb 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in November? Dec 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? Nov 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 18 $16 +$15 +89%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $2 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $120 on April 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $889 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $890 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Mar 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $883 −$1 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 240 or more times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jan 20 $1 $0 +8%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Dec 20 $12 $0 -2%
Blues vs. Panthers Dec 20 $13 $0 +0%
Avalanche vs. Ducks Dec 20 $19 $0 -0%
Rangers vs. Stars Dec 20 $19 $0 -2%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 20 $11 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Dec 19 $11 $0 -1%
Kings vs. Flyers Dec 19 $16 $0 +2%
Browns vs. Bengals Dec 19 $27 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Nets Dec 19 $3 $0 -3%
Rams vs. Jets Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Canucks vs. Utah Dec 19 $25 $0 -1%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Dec 18 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will BNB reach $900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 58d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 81d
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $6 144d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $24 145d
Will Solana reach $210 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 205d
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 242d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY No 53¢ $16 277d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 96¢ $2 299d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 99¢ $2 329d
XRP all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 359d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 388d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 388d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 390d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 419d
Solana above $120 on April 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 427d
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $888 447d
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $889 447d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $889 447d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $890 447d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $876 447d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $876 447d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 447d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $882 447d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $883 448d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 451d
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 462d
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 476d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.88 · official $27.88 (match) · 146 history records