Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf99…adea other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 65L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$23
14 days−$28
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$27
other 32% +$1
sports 14% +$1
politics 6% +$4
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 24 +83.4% +65.9% 46% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 40 +52.5% +38.0% 50% 8% -8.7%
all 96 +21.7% +10.1% 32% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -0.5% 2% -17.6%
15% -10.1% 2% -25.6%
20% -18.9% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage272d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $126 −$3 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $403 −$13 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $89 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $390 −$5 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $136 −$6 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $258 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $129 +$17 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 +$35 +2133%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $96 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $86 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $184 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $192 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $99 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $83 +$7 +9%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $613 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $282 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 24 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 31 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $113 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $113 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $86 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $87 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $130 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $99 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $93 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $85 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $100 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $86 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $82 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $121 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $58 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.34 · official $68.50 · 465 history records