Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf98…71d1 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate23%13W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$13
politics 18% −$9
other 5% +$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$61
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 13% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 45 -9.9% -18.5% 18% 9% -13.0%
all 56 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 7% -9.9%
10% -24.8% 7% -18.5%
15% -32.0% 5% -26.4%
20% -38.7% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses13 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage575d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$6 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 23 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $81 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $13,524 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 49m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 29h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 33h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $10 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 26d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $66 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $66 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $9 32d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 34d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records