Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf96…ded6 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$25
other 13% −$1
politics 7% −$1
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 6% -5.7%
≤90d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 6% -5.7%
all 52 -0.9% -10.3% 37% 2% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -7.0%
10% -18.9% 2% -15.9%
15% -26.8% 2% -24.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage447d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $52 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $49 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $20 −$5 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $62 +$25 +40%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 15 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 04 $4 $0 -7%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $2 $0 -24%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $45 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $63 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $52 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.57 · official $56.42 (match) · 197 history records