Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf96…d9c1 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$34
crypto 33% +$5
weather 2% $0
world 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 18 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,207) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage199d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on Ma May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on March 25? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 5? Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8? Feb 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 05 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on January 1 Jan 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $35 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9? Dec 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8? Dec 09 $1,231 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? Dec 08 $1,230 +$1 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7? Dec 08 $1,225 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 8? Dec 07 $1,223 +$2 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 6? Dec 07 $1,207 +$16 +1%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5? Dec 06 $1,196 +$10 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Dec 05 $33 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $34 35d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $33 50d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $32 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 92d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $36 102d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $36 110d
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8? BUY No 99¢ $36 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $36 138d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on January 1 BUY No 100¢ $35 148d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $35 171d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9? BUY No 99¢ $35 188d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,231 188d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 188d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 188d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 189d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,230 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $33.58 (match) · 68 history records