Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf95…cf2e world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$4
other 24% −$8
sports 18% +$3
politics 3% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 22% 11% -11.1%
≤30d 32 +1.3% -8.4% 44% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 43 -1.6% -11.0% 37% 5% -9.8%
all 79 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 11% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage527d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 −$2 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $36 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $58 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $71 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $92 −$4 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $64 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $10 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $44 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $78 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $42 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $84 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $7 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $82 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $44 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $313 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $283 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $17 −$2 -10%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Crudo win the Belmont Stakes? Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $41 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $43 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $13 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $14 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.60 (match) · 302 history records