Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf94…37bf world 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$3
finance 12% +$2
other 11% +$1
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 33% +0.5%
≤30d 9 +17.0% +5.8% 89% 56% +2.1%
≤90d 13 +8.2% -2.1% 85% 38% -6.8%
all 13 +8.2% -2.1% 85% 38% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 38% -6.8%
10% -11.5% 31% -15.8%
15% -20.1% 8% -23.9%
20% -27.9% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)13 / 27
History coverage52d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +30%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $2 +$1 +39%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 13 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 22m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 37m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 11h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $3 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $2 3d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $3 3d
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 77¢ $2 6d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1 11d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 72¢ $2 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 12d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 12d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.63 · official $81.49 · 77 history records