Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf8e…2f94
other · 432 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7,382 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,310 · open +$67
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$293
Realized−$7,310
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses330 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)445 / 432
History coverage107d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 10 History 445 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$456
7 days−$456
14 days−$456
30 days−$1,714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 73¢ $15 $290 +$275 (+1788%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +540%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$12 +205%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$18 -1713%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $13 +$1,291 +10012%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $150 +$22 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,444 −$1,273 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7 −$51 -766%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $4 +$13 +372%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $24 +$28 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $2 +$2 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $59 −$10 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $16 +$26 +166%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,267 −$1,251 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $41 +$5 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $79 +$53 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $6 +$6 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $163 +$1,168 +717%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $68 −$6 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,332 −$1,301 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $29 −$9 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $7 +$10 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $12 −$4 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $190 +$1,145 +603%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $138 +$115 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $32 +$26 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $6 +$7 +115%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $1,350 −$1,323 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,312 −$1,260 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $61 +$25 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$6,679
crypto 15% −$89
politics 0% −$16
world 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 52m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 52m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $27 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $83 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -40.2% -45.9% 11% 11% -94.0%
≤30d 41 +70.4% +54.2% 39% 37% -55.7%
≤90d 407 +46.8% +32.8% 75% 29% -30.5%
all 445 +55.8% +41.0% 74% 31% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.0% 31% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here +27.5% 22% -35.3%
15% +15.2% 18% -41.5%
20% +3.9% 16% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.55 · official $292.55 (match) · 3500 history records