Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf8d…38dd world 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
other 38% −$8
politics 15% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 63 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 63 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -10.4%
all 63 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.4%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage19d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, Jun 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July 2026? Jun 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? Jun 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, Jun 28 $27 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $6 $0 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 Jun 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 26 $19 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 21 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 20 $62 $0 +0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will Erling Haaland score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, SELL Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY Yes 78¢ $12 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY Yes 78¢ $16 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY Yes 78¢ $12 1h
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 2h
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 3h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $6 3h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $6 3h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? SELL No 39¢ $27 5h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? BUY No 39¢ $27 5h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, SELL No 88¢ $9 13h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY No 88¢ $9 13h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $6 13h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $6 13h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $3 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 15h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, SELL No 89¢ $18 18h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY No 89¢ $18 18h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 SELL Yes 81¢ $16 18h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 SELL Yes 81¢ $24 18h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 18h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 BUY Yes 81¢ $24 18h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records