Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf8c…29dd weather 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$164 (+1%) realized +$161 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%242W / 58L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$49
14 days+$85
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$159
crypto 0% −$19
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 125 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 300 -5.6% -14.6% 81% 7% -8.7%
all 300 -5.6% -14.6% 81% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 7% -8.7%
10% -22.8% 2% -17.4%
15% -30.2% 1% -25.4%
20% -37.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses242 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage67d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $221 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 11 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $90 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $188 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $190 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $170 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $170 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $170 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $170 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $169 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $76 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 04 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $80 −$7 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? Jun 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $30 −$19 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $205 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $200 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $201 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 35h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $204 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $200 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June SELL No 100¢ $152 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 10? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 92¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June BUY No 99¢ $150 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 91¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $202 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $200 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 8? BUY No 97¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? BUY Yes 96¢ $90 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.09 · official $203.09 (match) · 632 history records