Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf88…ee85
weather · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day159.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 48¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 46¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 −$5 -76%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$1
weather 32% −$4
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 45¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 50¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 50¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 50¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 49¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 26¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 25% -11.4%
≤30d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 25% -11.4%
≤90d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 25% -11.4%
all 16 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 25% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover159.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 25% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 12% -19.8%
15% -28.1% 12% -27.6%
20% -35.2% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.45 · official $11.54 (match) · 348 history records