Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf88…2dd9 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$16
politics 16% $0
tech 10% +$14
world 7% −$6
other 2% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.3% -34.2% 50% 50% -1.3%
≤30d 2 -27.3% -34.2% 50% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 71 +15.4% +4.4% 27% 24% -14.1%
all 76 +17.3% +6.1% 30% 26% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 26% -12.2%
10% -4.0% 24% -20.6%
15% -13.3% 22% -28.3%
20% -21.8% 18% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage102d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? Jun 11 $30 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 13 $16 −$5 -32%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$15 +742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 01 $2 +$3 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 01 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 31 $6 +$8 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 31 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Mar 31 $1 $0 -21%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Mar 31 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$6 +614%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$6 +563%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 4d
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 59d
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $25 59d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 55¢ $11 59d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 63d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 63d
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.80 · official $20.80 (match) · 189 history records