Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf85…4ec1 crypto 1684 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$348 (+2%) realized +$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate89%1498W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$70
14 days−$46
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$91
other 37% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -9.2% -17.8% 77% 42% -22.9%
≤30d 979 -2.0% -11.4% 85% 29% -11.7%
≤90d 1683 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 21% -11.2%
all 1683 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 21% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 21% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 13% -19.7%
15% -26.9% 6% -27.5%
20% -34.1% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1498 / 185
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1683 / 1684
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 3500 history records