Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf83…3385 sports 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,833 (+6%) realized +$19,399 · open +$434
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%126W / 104L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,421per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$3,894est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,051
7 days+$2,376
14 days+$3,216
30 days+$14,902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$14,480
other 25% +$1,040
crypto 0% −$161
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +18.9% +7.5% 64% 18% -7.9%
≤30d 216 +26.4% +14.4% 55% 25% -4.3%
≤90d 221 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 24% -4.3%
all 230 +25.5% +13.5% 55% 25% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.5% 25% -4.3%
10% +2.6% 19% -13.4%
15% ← realistic here -7.3% 15% -21.8%
20% -16.4% 10% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,618) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$105 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$4,014
Realized+$19,399
Unrealized+$434
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses126 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$3,894
Open positions5
Markets (closed)230 / 235
History coverage116d
Avg bet$1,421
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1,250 $1,398 +$148 (+12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ $525 $1,353 +$829 (+158%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1,500 $869 −$631 (-42%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $244 $325 +$82 (+33%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $62 $69 +$7 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $881 −$71 -8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,357 +$23 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,635 −$576 -22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,146 +$826 +38%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,720 +$216 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1,631 +$203 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5,670 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,501 −$7 -0%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,487 +$28 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,792 +$337 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7,216 +$72 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,501 +$14 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4,505 +$830 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,017 −$435 -43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,005 −$39 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7,032 +$35 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,504 −$144 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6,803 +$58 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $540 −$274 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,518 −$106 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,595 +$33 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,053 −$26 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,453 −$342 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $200 −$104 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3,402 +$33 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,870 +$20 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,255 +$605 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,217 +$12 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $698 −$162 -23%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,116 −$769 -69%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,428 +$401 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,733 +$471 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $681 −$22 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,267 +$122 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,506 −$236 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,531 +$15 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,861 −$19 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,494 −$15 -0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $920 −$358 -39%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,451 +$77 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,450 +$5 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,502 +$34 +1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5,005 +$176 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2,001 +$56 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $500 +$19 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,490 +$253 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $447 +$368 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $6 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $2,357 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $182 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $34 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $105 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $22 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $98 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $473 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $488 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $65 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $23 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $94 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $222 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $32 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $9 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,014.14 · official $4,014.14 (match) · 3273 history records