Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf81…601d crypto 1720 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,200 (-22%) realized −$3,200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1663W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$81
other 5% −$739
sports 2% +$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 1% -20.3%
≤30d 1395 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 1% -13.3%
≤90d 1720 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 1% -12.5%
all 1720 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 1% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 1% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -20.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -28.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1663 / 57
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1720 / 1720
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1720 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $741 −$739 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $682 +$57 +8%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $353 +$329 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $741 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $682 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 51¢ $353 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records