Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf81…6e25 sports 3 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$45,531 (+347%) realized +$45,531 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +330% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +252% what you keep after slip
Net edge+252%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$4,378per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$7,974
other 38% +$59,791
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+288.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1189.1% +1066.4% 100% 100% +1066.4%
≤30d 3 +329.7% +288.8% 33% 33% +351.0%
≤90d 3 +329.7% +288.8% 33% 33% +351.0%
all 3 +329.7% +288.8% 33% 33% +351.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +288.8% 33% +351.0%
10% ← realistic here +251.6% 33% +307.9%
15% +217.6% 33% +268.5%
20% +186.5% 33% +232.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +398% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +330% · $-wt +398% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59,791 vs −$3,987 · ×15.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.5 per $1 lost it wins $7.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45,531
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4,378
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $5,028 +$59,791 +1189%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $4,975 −$4,899 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3,130 −$3,075 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $64,820 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,006 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $4,975 9d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $996 10d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $971 11d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,027 12d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 40¢ $3,130 12d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,027 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records