Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf77…54a2 other 4 markets active 9h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$365 (+15%) realized +$360 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$352
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.2% +12.3% 100% 67% +9.7%
≤30d 3 +24.2% +12.3% 100% 67% +9.7%
≤90d 3 +24.2% +12.3% 100% 67% +9.7%
all 3 +24.2% +12.3% 100% 67% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 67% +9.7%
10% +1.6% 67% -0.8%
15% -8.2% 33% -10.3%
20% -17.2% 0% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$770
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $765 $770 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $626 +$142 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $600 +$12 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$193 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $771 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $768 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $626 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $612 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.27 · official $770.27 (match) · 7 history records