Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BF 0xbf75…be83 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$107 (+12%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$142
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$146
other 7% +$16
crypto 2% −$21
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 60% +6.0%
≤30d 60 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 60% +6.0%
≤90d 62 +20.4% +8.9% 60% 58% +5.7%
all 62 +20.4% +8.9% 60% 58% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 58% +5.7%
10% -1.5% 58% -4.4%
15% -11.0% 58% -13.6%
20% -19.8% 53% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage90d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 +$14 +274%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $21 +$25 +116%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 +$18 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$26 +103%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$23 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$16 +63%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 +$25 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$25 +162%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$15 +71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$14 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$17 +77%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $14 +$8 +58%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 +$13 +66%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $15 +$17 +112%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$15 -79%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $17 +$26 +149%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $19 +$18 +95%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $19 +$11 +61%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $21 +$20 +95%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$21 -43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$13 +94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 +$18 +99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$9 +186%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 +$13 +95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $6 +$3 +54%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$6 +68%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$4 +36%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$3 -60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$3 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $46 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $24 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $52 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $27 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $25 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 12h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Monte 100¢ $32 13h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $44 13h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $19 17h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 62¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $35 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $40 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $15 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $36 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $21 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 24h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $17 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $29 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records