Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf73…0436 world 303 markets active 23h ago coverage 221d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,293 (+2%) realized +$916 · open +$377
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%190W / 163L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$557
7 days−$699
14 days−$699
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1,183
other 24% −$572
politics 12% +$1,138
crypto 5% +$244
economics 2% −$19
tech 2% +$73
finance 1% +$60
sports 1% −$81
culture 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -97.3% -97.6% 2% 0% -52.3%
≤30d 66 -92.7% -93.4% 3% 2% -48.9%
≤90d 127 -46.4% -51.5% 38% 29% -7.8%
all 353 -6.1% -15.0% 54% 41% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -5.2%
10% -23.1% 27% -14.3%
15% -30.6% 16% -22.5%
20% -37.4% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$53 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$2,345
Realized+$916
Unrealized+$377
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses190 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)353 / 303
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$226
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $450 $480 +$30 (+7%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $297 $354 +$57 (+19%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 63¢ 98¢ $208 $326 +$118 (+57%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 67¢ 99¢ $202 $298 +$96 (+48%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $136 $198 +$62 (+45%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $170 $183 +$13 (+8%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 64¢ 84¢ $128 $169 +$41 (+32%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 49¢ 90¢ $49 $90 +$41 (+85%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $82 $89 +$7 (+8%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $12 $26 +$14 (+124%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 2¢ $104 $4 −$99 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Richard Rapport win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will A.R. Saleh Salem win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championshi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championshi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championshi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Samuel Sevian win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Jets vs. Sharks Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Eduardo Iturrizaga Bonelli win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Cha Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Eltaj Safarli win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rasmus Svane win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Champio Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wesley So win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Baadur Jobava win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bu Xiangzhi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ravens vs. Vikings Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Alexey Sarana win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aleksandar Indjic win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Leinier Dominguez Perez win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Champi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ray Robson win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Le Quang Liem win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shakhriyar Mamedyarov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Champion Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dmitry Andreikin win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Volodar Murzin win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championshi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Houston vs. UCF Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championshi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Olexandr Bortnyk win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haik M. Martirosyan win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championsh Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alan Pichot win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Raunak Sadhwani win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jorden Van Foreest win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championshi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vasyl Ivanchuk win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
5kt meteor strike in 2025? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jose Eduardo Martinez Alcantara win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Ope Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pentala Harikrishna win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championsh Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $130 22h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $71 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 19d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes 19¢ $60 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $482 34d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $450 34d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 53d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 53d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 56d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $599 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $31 60d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $70 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 65¢ $93 65d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 65¢ $2 65d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 65¢ $207 65d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 65¢ $4 65d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 65¢ $20 65d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 70d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 70d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 28¢ $55 70d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 25¢ $50 70d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 71d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 75¢ $225 71d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 96¢ $384 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 84¢ $84 71d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,344.80 · official $2,344.80 (match) · 3500 history records